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HNN Poll: Could Iraq Cost Bush the Election?

Last week historian Allan Lichtman told USA Today that it's rare for a president to lose an election over an issue related to foreign policy. Lichtman, who's accurately predicted many presidential elections based on a careful analysis of the critical factors that shape American politics--factors he refers to as"keys"*--argued that Bush is favored to win re-election. He added, however,"it could become quicksand if anything happens to the economy. He has no cushion at this point."

What do you think? Could Iraq cost Bush the presidency? Can you think of any foreign policy issues that cost presidents re-election?

*Allan Lichtman, The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President (Madison Books, 1996).