Polls slam Bush, but history has final say

As his approval numbers sink during these dog days of August, President Bush might take solace by reflecting on the roller-coaster ride through history taken by one of his predecessors. In April 1951, shortly after he removed Gen. Douglas MacArthur from command of U.S. troops in Korea, Harry Truman hit an all-time low in presidential popularity: Only 23 percent of his countrymen approved of the Missourian's job performance. Yet today, Truman regularly shows up as a top 10 president in scholarly polls of historians and broad surveys of Americans alike, who recognize that the Marshall Plan and NATO, key marks of his administration, helped rebuild Europe and contributed to the Western allies' victory over the Soviet Union in the Cold War.

"History not yet written will determine how Bush will be viewed a half-century from now," said Charles Franklin, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin. "But in the short run of politics that matters day to day, Iraq is clearly a big negative weight dragging him down and potentially threatening to drag down the Republican Party in midterm elections next year."

During the days following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, Bush's approval rating hit 90 percent, the highest recorded since Gallup began taking that opinion measure in 1939.

Yet, Bush's approval ratings in January 2001 and January this year - both in the mid-50s - were the lowest such marks of any newly elected president since the start of World War II.

Compared with the nine presidents who preceded him, Bush's average approval rating of around 50 percent puts him in the lower middle of the pack, with only Republicans Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford and Democrat Jimmy Carter behind him.

Franklin, the University of Wisconsin political scientist, said Bush's current low approval numbers should be especially troubling to him because they come so soon after he enjoyed major legislative triumphs.

Before adjourning for the summer, Congress passed a massive energy bill and approved the Central American Free Trade Agreement, two key measures Bush had pushed since first taking office.