CIA document predicts failure of Bay of Pigs invasion

Five months before the Bay of Pigs invasion, the CIA task force plotting to overthrow Fidel Castro concluded that the invasion was ``unachievable'' as a covert paramilitary operation, according to a newly discovered unclassified document.

Indeed, historians have documented individuals expressing doubts at various times ahead of the ill-fated mission.

But the document, a 300-page internal CIA history, reveals for the first time that the architects themselves foresaw failure during a Nov. 15, 1960, meeting to prepare a briefing for President-elect John F. Kennedy and recorded it in a memo.

``There will not be the internal unrest earlier believed possible, nor will Castro's defense permit the type of strike first planned,'' say notes of the meeting, according to the official CIA historian, Jack Pfeiffer. ``Our second concept (1,500-3,000) man force to secure a beach with airstrip is also now seen to be unachievable, except as a joint Agency/DOD CIA/Pentagon action.''

Historians say it is unclear whether CIA Director Allen Dulles and his deputy passed this assessment along three days later, at Kennedy's post-election national security briefing in Palm Beach, Fla. - and whether changes were made as a result of the finding. But, with Kennedy's blessing, the so-called ``unachievable'' CIA-only second concept went forward five months later, on April 17, 1961 - with devastating consequences.