Science discoveries getting rarer, made by older researchers
What if key elements of science policy are based on patterns of discovery that no longer exist?
That's the question behind a paper (abstract available here) released Monday by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The paper -- by Benjamin Jones, associate professor of management at Northwestern University -- argues that science has changed in key ways. Specifically, it argues that the age at which researchers are able to make breakthroughs has advanced, and that scientists are parts of increasingly larger teams, encouraging narrow specialization. Yet, he argues, science policy (or a lot of it) continues to assume the possibility if not desirability of breakthroughs by a lone young investigator....
He then reviews a variety of measures that show the twin trends of an aging and more group-oriented scientist. On age, he notes that:
* During the 20th century, the average age at which researchers made the accomplishments that were later honored with Nobel Prizes in physics, chemistry, medicine and economics increased by 5.83 years.
* During the 20th century, the average age at which researchers made "great" technological achievements rose by 4.86 years, while the age of those achieving a first patent -- for more average inventors -- went up by 6.57 years.
In exploring the data more fully, Jones finds that the gains are not the result of people living longer, but generally of a decline in "great achievement" in scientists' 20s and 30s. "Peak productivity has increased by about 8 years, with the effect coming entirely from a collapse in productivity at young ages," Jones writes....
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That's the question behind a paper (abstract available here) released Monday by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The paper -- by Benjamin Jones, associate professor of management at Northwestern University -- argues that science has changed in key ways. Specifically, it argues that the age at which researchers are able to make breakthroughs has advanced, and that scientists are parts of increasingly larger teams, encouraging narrow specialization. Yet, he argues, science policy (or a lot of it) continues to assume the possibility if not desirability of breakthroughs by a lone young investigator....
He then reviews a variety of measures that show the twin trends of an aging and more group-oriented scientist. On age, he notes that:
* During the 20th century, the average age at which researchers made the accomplishments that were later honored with Nobel Prizes in physics, chemistry, medicine and economics increased by 5.83 years.
* During the 20th century, the average age at which researchers made "great" technological achievements rose by 4.86 years, while the age of those achieving a first patent -- for more average inventors -- went up by 6.57 years.
In exploring the data more fully, Jones finds that the gains are not the result of people living longer, but generally of a decline in "great achievement" in scientists' 20s and 30s. "Peak productivity has increased by about 8 years, with the effect coming entirely from a collapse in productivity at young ages," Jones writes....