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I'm spending New Year's morning cleaning out my office at home and found a Dell catalog from May 2001 when I bought the computer before this one. As has often been observed, we've been paying the same nominal prices for computers for 20 years (e.g., my original 128K Mac in 1984 cost about the same nominal amount as the machine I'm currently using - 2.8ghz, 1gb RAM 120gb hd) and we keep getting better and better stuff for it. This old Dell catalog certainly bears that out.

However, two other points often overlooked:

1. The new products that appear year to year. This catalog from 01 was very light on photography and video, for example.

2. The rapidity with which new technology becomes a mere "add-in." In my current Dell catalog, a 17" LCD is the standard basic included monitor, with high-end systems including a 19" LCD. In May of 2001, there was a "new" item in the monitor section: a 15" LCD monitor for the bargain price of ...... $540. In 4 to 5 years, that same item isn't as good as the "toss-in" on new systems.

You can buy a 15" LCD for just over $200 at Dell today (or $178 at PC Connection), but even their "bargain" systems include a free 15" LCD. For example, you can buy a whole system for $499 that is at least twice as good as what I bought in 5/01 and get included FREE a monitor that cost more in 5/01 than the whole computer including the same monitor does today!

How we account for these improvements in product quality and the falling real cost of such products when we talk about economic well-being remains a tricky business, but there's no doubt about the reality. Real worker compensation may be growing very slowly, but what you can buy with it continues to grow significantly.
Sunday, January 1, 2006 - 12:27
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As the"War on Terror" has pushed libertarians to declare their relative dovishness or hawkishness, it's worth remembering, as Mark Brady so admirably and often reminds us here at L&P, that classical liberalism's commitment to free trade was part and parcel of its broader opposition to imperialism and war. Cato's Dan Griswold gives a nice overview of both the argument and the evidence that increased free trade has reduced the frequency of conflict over the last few decades. He concludes:

"Advocates of free trade and globalization have long argued that trade expansion means more efficiency, higher incomes, and reduced poverty. The welcome decline of armed conflicts in the past few decades indicates that free trade also comes with its own peace dividend."

Now, if only those on the left who are both anti-war and in favor of limits on free trade could see how the latter undermines the former...
Wednesday, December 28, 2005 - 15:09
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One of my interests these days is defending Wal-Mart against the misguided barbs of its critics. In the last year, I've participated in two different public forums on Wal-Mart, one defending putting a Supercenter in the next town over and the other as a "responder" to the new anti-Wal-Mart documentary "The High Cost of Low Price." I have posted my remarks on the latter on my website. My apologies for some of the local references there, but the audience was leftist students and local community members.

When I did that forum, however, I wish I'd had access to this paper (PDF) by Jason Furman. (Hat tip to Don Luskin at the Krugman Truth Squad.) Some of this was reported on in a Washington Post op-ed, but the paper has tons more good stuff in it. One item not noted in the op-ed is this:

Wal-Mart is relatively unusual in that it offers health insurance both to full- and part-time employees. By comparison, only 60 percent of firms economywide offer health benefits and only 17 percent of firms offer health benefits to part-time workers. Target, for example, does not offer benefits to people working less than 20 hours per week. Wal-Mart, however, has longer waiting periods for eligibility for benefits than many other firms, 6 months for full-time workers and 24 months for part-time workers.

It never ceases to amaze me how many distortions people have created around Wal-Mart, as well as the level of sheer fear it creates among certain folks, both right and left. Perhaps, much like the BDS ("Bush Derangement Syndrome") coined by Charles Krauthammer, we need a WMDS for those who seem to froth at the mouth at the mere mention of Wal-Mart. If so, let me take credit for first coining "Wal-Mart Derangement Syndrome" as the acute onset of paranoia, irrationality, and/or economic ignorance in otherwise normal people in reaction to any one or more of the policies, the practices, the prices, the products, the aesthetics, if not the very existence, of Wal-Mart.

Friday, December 23, 2005 - 17:37
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In this morning's local paper (the Watertown Daily Times if you must know) is a story of 15 gas stations in New York state being charged by the attorney general's office with "price gouging" in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. The story is full of the usual problems with the term, including the arbitrariness of any definition of gouging and AG Elliot Spitzer's call for a federal investigation. But the best part is the detail on the charges against a station here in St. Lawrence county about 10 miles up the road from me.

It's worth knowing that this station is relatively new and is out in the middle of the country. As a result, it tends to have slightly higher gas prices but has brought gas and a convenience store to an area that had nothing. And many folks have been happy to find it there, and willing to pay a bit more for the convenience, not to mention a clean set of bathrooms in the middle of the country.

It turns out that the owner ordered gas from his wholesaler on Sept. 2 at $3.68/gallon, leading him to raise his pump price to $3.80 for the week. The wholesaler was unable to deliver the gas the next day, by the end of which the wholesale price fell to $3.39/gallon. The station owner assumed he would still pay the price he contracted for and thus kept his retail price at $3.80. That 41 cent difference was enough for Spitzer to act. What's interesting is that the wholesaler has leapt to the defense of the retailer by telling the AG that "we waited until the following day to deliver since it would be cheaper for the customer"! Moreover, Sept 2 was a Friday, so as the wholesaler points out "my department doesn't work Saturday or Sunday [so] the first time [the retailer] would have known [about the lower price] would have been Monday morning September 5." So, bottom line, this retailer is paying a fine for "price gouging" because the wholesaler did him and his customers a favor by waiting a day to deliver gas when it was cheaper and because the retailer assumed his contract at the original price would stay in force. The wholesaler does him a favor, one favoring consumers, and he assumes his contract will get upheld, and he gets charged even though there appears to be little way he could have known that he'd been billed the cheaper price.

But wait, it gets better. The owner of the store also reports that over the weekend when his price was at $3.80, his sales dropped significantly. He sold 1358 gallons on 9/2, 738 gallons on 9/3, and 429 gallons on 9/4. This was also Labor Day weekend, when lots of car travel happens. His sales didn't reach 1000 gallons again until 9/9. So the result of his supposed "price gouging?" A drop in sales! Gasp!! Demand curves slope downward after all! As the owner says in his defense "why would I purposely gouge somebody and watch my sales drop?"

The response from the AG's spokesman: "Consumers paid a markup over the three days. They had to pay the retail price he asked, and they did." They "had to pay" it? Evidently they did not, given the drop in sales the owner saw. Yes, he's located out in the country, but his price was so out of line with other prices that many consumers (gasp again!) found another retailer that weekend. Some chose to buy there, of course, but it's not like they had a gun to their head or no other options (there are 3 very competitive gas stations 7 or 8 miles down the road in my town). Notice how the AG's office treats consumers as passive victims, even though the evidence clearly shows they made active choices in the face of high prices.

The other irony here is that the very same paper just yesterday ran a story about how gas prices here in St. Lawrence county are the lowest in the are precisely due to an influx of new competition here in Canton - those very same group of stations just 7 or 8 miles away from the supposed gouger. Of course this is all really about picking on the little guy. This station is not a chain store - he's a local guy who opened up this business in the country much to the delight of many folks. He doesn't have the resources to fight the AG's office even if he's in the right, so he just caved and paid the fine (which was actually rather small).

Frankly, I think charging stations with price gouging under these circumstances and then putting them in a position where they have to pay the fine no matter the evidence is precisely the sort of extortion that the AG's office is claiming to protect "us" against in the case of price-gouging. But who the hell is going to investigate them?

Thursday, December 22, 2005 - 20:32
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Here's one of the best pieces I've seen on how the"little platoons" of civil society are out-shining Big Government in responding to the aftermath of Katrina. I think Anne Applebaum gets it just about right. It continues to amaze me that this whole things is read any other way than a massive failure of government, for all the reasons that libertarians have talked about for years. What Applebaum does well here is to point out how civil society has succeeded in responding. Though never said explicitly, it's pretty clear that the ability of smaller, more local institutions to respond in more flexible and less bureaucratic ways, through decentralized coordination, is the reason why.
Sunday, September 18, 2005 - 08:09
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This is a delightful little glimpse of the future of pizza delivery, once we have National IDs, state-run health-care, and a host of other unpleasant state activity. I'd say"enjoy" but you won't.

Thursday, August 18, 2005 - 09:22
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My long-time friend and partner in Austrian crime (and L&P contributing editor) Pete Boettke has a nice new entry at The Austrian Economists blog. Pete is addressing James Buchanan's contributions to political economy (and runs down a great list of Buchanan aphorisms that generations of grad students have tried to take to heart). Specifically, Pete talks about the varieties of socialism that have been threats to economic and political freedom over the last 100 years. He notes that the 21st century version of socialism has a new twist to it, according to Buchanan:

But Buchanan claims in his essay "Afraid to Be Free: Dependence as Desideratum" that the new threat in the 21st century comes in the form of:

(4) parental socialism --- where the individuals invite the government to meddle in their lives to protect them from themselves and provide security in their lives from the vagaries of a life left to their own making.

That's my emphasis, which is to distinguish this form of socialism, which involves individuals asking to be saved from themselves (parental) from forms where elected leaders or self-appointed elites simply believed they had to save others from themselves (paternal). Pete argues that Buchanan believes parental socialism has arisen because:

Autonomy is losing its appeal. The learned helplessness we have acquired by living in a political culture of preferential treatment and protection from ourselves may have left the modern mind incapable of accepting the responsibilities of freedom. We are instead afraid to be free.

I think there's much truth to this, but I want to take it a step further. It's not just the political culture that creates this demand to be saved from ourselves, but other aspects of the culture as well. In particular, I want to talk about parenting and the family.

Part of the unwillingness and inability of many (especially young) adults to take responsibility for their own lives comes from being raised by parents who protected them from either having to choose (by doing it for them) or accepting responsibility for the outcomes of the choices (by trying to constantly bail them out of situations of their own making). In addition, too many parents operate in a climate of fear, where they will go to extraordinary lengths to ensure that nothing "bad" ever happens to their children. Think of the parents who will only allow their child to play on a playground full of soft rubber equipment and mats so that the horror of a scraped knee or bruised shin will never be experienced. Or consider the way better-off parents have taken quickly to getting children diagnosed with learing disabilities the moment school gets tough or they are unable to live up to parental expectations. Although some such disabilities may be real, it can also be a convenient way of excusing self-responsibility. Consider further the umbilical cord of the cellphone, with so many college students constantly connected to parents - and not because just the parents want that connection, but because the students themselves often cannot make a decision without parental involvement and help. As this wonderful piece from Psychology Today terms it, we're fast becoming "A Nation of Wimps."

Having worked with incoming college students closely for four years, the future scares me. We have too many students arriving at college unprepared for the sorts of decisions they will have to make and for taking responsibility for the results. For example, a group of our students, in the wake of the alcohol-related death of a fellow student, demanded that the university provide a "drunk bus" from campus to the village so that they could drink heavily and not have to worry about getting home. Their argument was that they should be able to do whatever they want and that WE should be making sure it doesn't kill them. This is "parental socialism" at its core.

We also have students who are unprepared for failure, having been cushioned from it for 18 years by parents who believe that any negative outcome for their kids reflects some sort of failure on their part. My own diagnosis of much of this cultural problem is that too many parents want trophy kids and that the over-psychologizing of parenting has frozen parents into mortal fear of doing something "wrong" and damaging kids for life. Think of the vast literature on potty training. Ask people who parented before the 1960s about whether they needed a manual to train their kids, or feared deep psychological damage if they did it "too early" or "wrong." They will, rightly in my view, laugh in your face. (The psychologist-columnist John Rosemond is excellent on this issue and many others, though I don't agree with him on everything. See in particular his Bill of Rights for Children, which captures his approach well.)

I once said to a group of students that the sign of a good parent is that he or she is unafraid to make his or her children cry (e.g. by saying no and sticking to it). They were horrified. For thousands of years, humans made it to adulthood fully functional despite a world much scarier than that of the 21st century. It's a fascinating question why we've invented this culture of "safety" and fear around our children. Perhaps with the demise of real fears (childhood illnesses, widespread grinding poverty in the West, and children being killed while working), we create new ones, in a sort of "dark side" parallel of Maslow's hierarchy of needs. One test of this hypothesis would be whether or not these sorts of parenting practices and views of responsibility are directly correlated with a society's wealth. My own casual empiricism about my own students (both across differences in income within the US and between US students and those coming from poorer regions outside the US) suggests the hypothesis is correct.

And those of us who teach know these kids - they don't know how to react to a poor grade and work to improve it; they take all criticism (from faculty and peers) of their ideas or skills as being personal (or being the result of faculty political bias, rather than consider the possibility that they need to do better); and faced with personal crises, they are frozen into complete inactivity. And they expect their parents to make it all right. Once again, the cultural roots of parental socialism in a nutshell.

I don't consider myself a Randian or an Objectivist of any stripe, but this issue is an example of ol' Ayn being right on the mark in emphasizing the linkages between cultural practices, philosophical ideas, and the political-economic order. I invite, no I urge, Chris to chime in here and make this argument better than I can. It seems to me it's precisely the sorts of things he's talking about in the last few chapters of Total Freedom.

The challenge for those of us who cherish economic and political freedom is enormous. Without changes in the culture, specifically the culture around parenting, it will be increasingly difficult to convince people that a free society is a good society. As Chris and others have said, recognizing the central role of culture in this way inverts a famous feminist slogan; in this analysis, the political is often the personal.

Saturday, August 13, 2005 - 10:17
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Don't know about others, but I'm refusing, on principle, to see the eco-disaster flick The Day After Tomorrow. I'm not in the mood to drop money in the hands of folks who are clearly trying to score political points with highly dubious science. Same reason I've never watched a minute of Bowling for Columbine (although Moore is worse for not acknowledging his film is fictional).

Were I to say to friends that I'm not seeing the movie on principle, I can already hear them saying "Oh come on, it's just a movie." That response just drives me crazy. No it's not "just" a movie; it's ideas in the form of a narrative, and those ideas matter. Perhaps it's the old Randian in me, but whatever the cause, I just cannot abide supporting forms of art that project ideas that I find fundamentally in error, or morally wrong. To think that I could somehow shut off the "ideas" part of my brain and just "enjoy the action" strikes me as so anti-rational and anti-intellectual that I don't know where to begin to respond to it. It's the same way I feel when I'm in class and talking about serious, if abstract, ideas, and the students give me the "roll of the eyes" look like "here he goes again...". I guess I expect more from adults, but having had the "oh, it's just a movie" reaction before, I'm sure I'll get it again.

Monday, August 8, 2005 - 13:06
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I can't help but make one comment on Reagan: I never voted for the man, and I disagreed with him more than I agreed with him, but...

I have always admired him for having the courage of his convictions, for not caring too much what others thought about him, and most of all, for maintaining his sense of humor and optimism about himself and the world around him.

Too many conservatives, and libertarians for that matter, are seen as, and some really are!, humorless or pessimistic (see Robert Bork for example). Reagan convinced many that it was possible to be a happy, optimistic, and funny conservative. That alone was probably responsible for a tremendous shift in the perception of conservativism in the US and the rise of the current generation of baby boom conservatives. He was also a man of ideas. He was much better read than people have given him credit for, and more important, he believed in the power of ideas. That sets him apart from every president since World War II, at least. The combination of idealism and optimism and humor was also important in getting things done despite significant opposition. He was, for better or for worse, a good model of leadership.

I have often used a quote that Reagan kept on his desk, although he didn't write it: "There's no limit to what a man can do or where he can go if he doesn't mind who gets the credit." Another fine model for leadership.

Love him or hate him, he changed the world, and he'll be the last man of ideas to run for president.

Monday, August 8, 2005 - 13:06
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While I certainly agree with Arthur's general concerns here, I've never found the Rumsfeld quote about the "unknowns" to be the least bit problematic. It not only makes sense to me, I think he's right. It's a core observation of modern Austrian economics, for example, that there are things we know we don't know and things we don't know we don't know. For example: if I look up a friend's phone number in the phonebook, I know that I don't know his number. However, if while doing so I happen to notice that another friend has a new number that I was unaware of having changed, I have discovered something I didn't know that I didn't know.

Mainstream economics has a lot of answers for how we attack the first - namely, the idea of "search." But it has fewer answers for the second: how do we "discover" that which we don't know we don't know. The Austrian argument is precisely that markets are better at the second than the various alternatives.

Distinguishing between the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns is a very important step in any decision making process, as is thinking about the best methods for making either type of unknown into a known. I have no love for Rumsfeld, but making fun of him for that comment isn't fair. He is making perfect sense.

Monday, August 8, 2005 - 13:06
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Rod has given us a hunk of economics and social analysis to chew on. I am largely in agreement with what he has to say, but I think there are some issues to clarify and expand upon.

Women on the job market make, on average, 75 cents for every dollar men make for the equivalent jobs.

Actually, this is only real problem in the piece.  The famous 75 cents figure is NOT based on "equivalent jobs," rather it's based on the average wage for working women and working men.  It does not take into account the kind of jobs people have, the training and education they have, their family situations, whether they work full-time or part-time, and so forth.  Studies that control for these sorts of variables continually narrow the gender wage gap.  Even just taking age into account changes matters:  the wage gap for men and women in their 20s, not controlling for any other variables, is notably smaller, with women earning over 90 cents on a dollar for men.  Not surprisingly, the gap is largest for older women.  Why "not surprisingly?"  The key is that younger women were more prepared to enter the job market - they are more likely to have college degrees etc..  Older women frequently found themselves employed when they didn't expect to be at a younger age, making it less likely they acquired skills that would make them productive. 

According to the National Longitudinal Study of Youth, in 1968, 28% of white women age 14-24 planned to work at age 35.  In 1980, more than 70% of them were in the labor force.  In 1979, 75% of women age 14-21 planned to work at age 35.  The women who were in that age group in the late 60s found themselves at age 35 and later in the workforce but underskilled.  They are still catching up.  Younger women haven't faced that problem, hence their wage gap is lower.  And note that this was about white women - the wage gap between black women and black men has always been narrower because black women have had higher labor force participation rates and have had greater expectations of working as adults, not to mention the various problems that lead to low wages for black men (war on drugs, crappy public schools, etc.).

Studies that have controlled for all the non-gender factors that might affect wages show much smaller gaps. For example, a late 1990s study by June O'Neill showed that the gap for all people aged 27-33 without children was 2% in 1994. And recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data show the gap was 8% for never-married workers in 1999.  So, the reality here is that a good hunk of the gender wage gap is explained by the differences in labor market characteristics of men and women, everything from human capital to whether or not they are married or have kids.  Bottom line:  two workers in their 20s or 30s identical in every way other than gender will make just about the same wages.  A gap still exists but it is under 10%, and perhaps much smaller.  My point is simply that markets are already doing a pretty good job of eliminating labor market discrimination in the sense of making sure that equally qualified people get paid the same for the same work.

Rod's critique of the neoclassical story of why competition will perfectly eliminate descrimination-based wage gaps is excellent.  An Austrian perspective would emphasize the prospective nature of the value of a worker's marginal product and gladly admit that employers can and do get it wrong.  I heartily recommend the work of W. H. Hutt for a really good Austrian view of labor markets.  Austrians would rely on the "rationality" of markets as processes, not the foresight of individual firms, to explain why there is a tendency for workers to get paid according to what they contribute to production.  And Rod's points about the comparative ability of markets and governments to set wages (both imperfectly, but markets less imperfectly) are right on as well.

Nonetheless, a wage gap remains.  Is that the result of discrimination?  Possibly.  As Rod rightly notes, sexism may be a consumption good to some managers and they are willing to sacrifice profits to be biased against women.  Even recognizing this point doesn't necessarily point to state intervention as the solution.  Why would we expect less sexism among male bureaucrats and politicians, and especially when, absent profit and loss, they lack both signals and incentives to alert them to such behavior and to encourage them to correct it?  It's one thing to say firm managers will see and ignore the unprofitability of sexism, but how likely is gender equality to be when such signals and incentives aren't even there to be seen or ignored?

The wage gap also remains because even if men and women are equally capable of most or all work, cultural norms and expectations affect men and women differently and this has implications for wages.  As Rod nicely puts it:

The fact that the wage gap does not get whittled away by competition in this fashion shows that the gap must be based, so the argument runs, on a real difference in productivity between the sexes. This does not necessarily point to any inherent difference in capacities, but might instead be due to the disproportionate burden of household work shouldered by women -- which would also explain why the wage gap is greater for married women than for single women. (Walter Block makes this argument also.) Hence feminist worries about the wage gap are groundless.

I'm not sure why this argument, if successful, would show that worrying about the wage gap is a mistake, rather than showing that efforts to redress the gap should pay less attention to influencing employers and more attention to influencing marital norms. (Perhaps the response would be that since wives freely choose to abide by such norms, outsiders have no basis for condemning the norms. But since when can't freely chosen arrangements be criticised -- on moral grounds, prudential grounds, or both?)

I could not agree with this more.  Let me phrase it somewhat differently though:  the gender wage gap that exists after human capital etc. is taken into account may reflect discrimination/sexism but that discrimination is not the fault of labor markets.  For example, if it is women who are expected to raise the children or do a disproportionate share of the household labor, this will make them less productive in the labor market, leading to lower wages.  (They will more likely want part-time work, or jobs with scheduling flexibility, both of which tend to pay less, ceteris paribus.  They will also be more likely to interrupt their consecutive years at a specific job or in the labor force generally, both of which, ceteris paribus, lower earnings.)  The problem here is that the sexism is occuring "before" people get to the labor market:  in the distribution of household production or in educational processes or more generally in cultural expectations of men and women.  Markets may reasonably accurately reflect productivity, but other sexist social processes produce differences in productivity that lead to wage differentials.  For me, it's perfectly possible to argue both that markets will reduce discrimination much better than the state or other systems and that sexism still causes women to get paid less than men, all else equal.  As a libertarian, one can, as Rod says, criticize the voluntary choices of individuals, especially when one thinks they lead to pernicious social consequences. 

And I also am in deep agreement with this point of Rod's:

That's one reason I'm more sympathetic to the labour movement and the feminist movement than many libertarians nowadays tend to be. In the 19th century, libertarians saw political oppression as one component in an interlocking system of political, economic, and cultural factors; they made neither the mistake of thinking that political power was the only problem nor the mistake of thinking that political power could be safely and effectively used to combat the other problems.

One of the things I talk about when I teach this material is that if women (and men!) want to continue to narrow that wage gap, they need to, as it were, get their own houses in order.  When the burden of household production is more equally shared between men and women, the gap between their wages will fall as well.  Obviously, neither Rod nor I am recommending state-sponsored re-education camps for lazy men, but there are all kinds of non-coercive ways to convince people to change their behaviors, and to call upon moral norms of fairness and equality in doing so. 

Will the gender wage gap ever be eliminated totally?  Maybe not, but as libertarians, we can do more than just say "well, markets eliminate any 'real' discrmination" and be done with it.  It's about both liberty AND power (duh!).  We can be part of social movements that work for equality in the home and workplace (power) as well as under the law (liberty).

Monday, August 8, 2005 - 13:06
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I suppose I should weigh in on this whole election thing, eh?  It's tomorrow, right?

More seriously, I'm probably closest to Chris's position here.  Historically, I've been a conscientious abstainer.  It does indeed "only encourage them."  I did vote LP in 1984, the first year I could vote, but have not voted in a presidential election since.  As this week's brilliant South Park put it (hat tip to Glen Whitman for the dialogue):

MRS. MARSH: How was school today, Stanley?
STAN: It was ridiculous. We have to have a new school mascot and we're supposed to choose between a giant douche and a turd sandwich.
MRS. MARSH: What did you say?
MR. MARSH: Did you just say that voting is ridiculous?
STAN: No, I think voting is great, but if I have to choose between a douche and a turd, I just don’t see the point.
MR. MARSH: You don’t see the point? Oh, you young people just make me sick!
MRS. MARSH: Stanley, do you know how many people died so you could have the right to vote?
STAN: Well Mom, I just don’t think there’s much of a difference between a douche and a turd. I don’t care.

Yes indeed, not much difference at all between a douche and a turd sandwich.  But why not vote LP?  Historically, I've believed that the whole process of voting, even if I voted LP, was akin to rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.  It's not just that my individual vote doesn't matter, or that it doesn't matter whether a douche or a turd wins (both of which I believe to be true), but that the real problems we face as society are so deep and profound and are at the levels of the intellectual and the institutional, that voting as a process has little effect.  We need to make other more fundamental changes first.  Like the sheep who get to decide which wolf will eat them, choice is cold comfort.

I should add that my conscientious abstention drives my left-liberal colleagues far more batty than any particular position I take as a libertarian.  I find that so interesting.  It's not as if I'm not engaged politically.  Aside from the fact that my classroom is a place where I see myself helping students become informed and articulate citizens, I'm a total political junkie, not to mention my recent appearance at a local town forum on Wal-Mart (I was pro).  But to my colleagues, there's something so fundamental about the act of voting that not doing so, even with good clear reasons, just cannot be abided.

This election, however, has tempted me more than any other recently, if only because the incumbent is so, well, turd sandwich-like.  As I've said before here, I'm "rooting" for Kerry, but I cannot force down my bile long enough to vote for him, as douche-y as he is.  Were I to vote, and I still might, it would be for Badnarik, and for largely the reasons David, Rod and Keith put forward.  However, although he's neither a douche nor a turd sandwich, he is a wingnut (even by LP standards).  I so agree with David's point about the LP putting forward a candidate with name recognition who I could really get behind (Penn Jillette is perfect), but I do see the argument for voting LP to keep the "remnant" moving forward.  It's just so hard to pull the lever for a wingnut, even with the lackluster alternatives.

So, I'll probably sit this one out.  Of course that decision is harder and harder to explain to my kids, especially since if they tell other people, the Village of Canton might ride me out of town on a horse, stranding me at the local PETA compound, where I can begin to understand what it truly means to love animals and die a horrible death at the hands of Puff Daddy (go watch the whole South Park episode...)

Monday, August 8, 2005 - 13:06
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I'm in the midst of re-reading Hayek's The Road to Serfdom for a roundtable discussion at the History of Economics Society meetings next weekend. What a wonderful, prescient book. It's also very interesting to see, as Hayek notes in his introduction to the 1976 edition, how much that was in there foreshadowed later work he engaged in. The chapter "Why the Worst Get on Top" has always been one of my favorites, and it remains so after re-reading it. Given the recent events in Iraqi prisons by both Saddammites and the US military, I couldn't help but note this passage (pp. 150-1), which I reprint here:

But where a few specific ends dominate the whole of society [e.g., the War on Terror or a cult of personality - SH], it is inevitable that occasionally cruelty may become a duty; that acts which revolt all our feeling, such as the shooting of hostages or the killing of the old or sick, should be treated as mere matters of expediency; that the compulsory uprooting and transportation of hundreds of thousand should be come an instrument of policy approved by almost everybody except the victims.... There is always in the eyes of the collectivist a greater goal which these acts serve and which to him justifies them because the pursuit of the common end of society can know no limits in any rights or values of any individual. ....

There will be jobs to be done about the badness of which taken by themselves nobody has any doubt, but which have to be done in the service of some higher end, and which have to be executed with the same expertness and efficiency as any others. And as there will be need for actions which are bad in themselves, and which all those still influenced by traditional morals will be reluctant to perform, the readiness to do bad things becomes a path to promotion and power.

The chapter on "The End of Truth" also is well worth reading in light of the War on Terror.

Monday, August 8, 2005 - 13:03
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I haven't blogged much about the war here because my opposition to it is less strong than most of my co-bloggers. I described myself as "marginally opposed" to the War in Iraq from the start, with the "marginally" mostly due to not wanting to be associated with the variety of other questionable causes of the anti-war movement. I did and still do share the skepticism of many of you about the ability of the US gov't to rebuild a nation when it can't even deliver the mail. However, I also believe that the demise of Saddam Hussein, taken in isolation, was a significant step forward for human freedom, and was willing to be convinced it might be worth it. I also have more sympathy for the plight of Israel in the turmoil of the mid-east than perhaps others here do (obligatory note: that does not let Israel off the hook for its many wrongdoings).

In the last few weeks, however, I find myself becoming increasingly radicalized in my opposition to the war. It's not just that the costs of the activity that deposed a dictator are rapidly increasing, especially the body counts of both American soldiers and innocent Iraqis, nor prison abuses in and of themselves, nasty as they are. It's more a sense that this whole operation was done on the fly, with no framing ethical or philosophical concerns (of course why I or anyone should expect war to have such concerns is a good question, as I awake from my slumbers...). Now, as more prison abuse stories come out (see especially this one on the treatment of women prisoners), I'm more and more convinced that we don't, and never did, know what we're doing there, and the result of that ignorance, as it frequently is with state action, is that the "worst get on top" to paraphrase a chapter title from Hayek's The Road to Serfdom. In the absence of the requisite knowledge to do what is "right," those with a comparative advantage in the making of war without concern about what's "right" will rise to the top. When agents of the US government begin to use the same sorts of justification for the inhumane treatment of prisoners that totalitarian regimes do, even if it's only a small fraction of the military as a whole, then it's time to step back and ask just what it's all about. If this is the road away from serfdom... no thanks.

To quote one of the great philosophers of the 20th century:

I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
Don't get fooled again
No, no!

....

Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss

Monday, August 8, 2005 - 13:02
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Nah, the War on Terror isn't violating anyone's civil liberties. Why that's all a bunch of paranoid lefty hoo-hah. Or maybe not. An artist wants to do a display on genetically-modified crops and the FBI seizes his materials and starts talking bio-terrorism charges? Damn well better be anthrax in there and not corn.
Monday, August 8, 2005 - 13:03
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A few responses to Jonathan then I'll let this one go. (I'll also note my last name has one "o" in it.)

I do indeed recognize the state/private distinction and that distinction is at the heart of why I think, in the world of the second best of state-sanctioned marriage, same-sex couples should be included in the institution (and why, short of that, state universities and governments should extend the benefits they provide for their married employees to same-sex couples).

I guess it also bothers me to have this issue reduced to the power of the gay lobby group. Of course, there is a lobby group component to this issue, but characterizing it as primarily that obfuscates the real human beings and their real desire to partake in the institution of marriage that comprise those arguing for same-sex marriage rights. In this way, the movement for same-sex marriage shares elements with other civil rights movements of the past. Note, I'm not equating them; I'm simply suggesting they share some elements. Yes, there are material benefits involved, but I think most of the folks who really want this to happen, and who stood in line in Massachusetts to get a license, are much more concerned about being able to call themselves married and to be recognized as equal in the eyes of the law then they are with that second driver discount on the auto insurance.

As for the polygamy question... I won't rule out the possibility that polygamous marriage should be recognized by the state, but I think there's strong reasons to believe they are different from two-party marriages, and Jonathan Rauch's new book makes this case better than I can. If polygamy can reach the same status of tolerance or acceptance in civil society as have homosexuals and same-sex relationships, then let them make their case. But given some of the power issues involved, many of which doomed the institution historically, such relationships are less likely to survive.

Two last things. One, the slippery slope argument doesn't fly. It's certainly possible that extending marriage to same-sex couples would lead to further calls for legal intervention that libertarians wouldn't like. So what? If extending marriage is the right thing to do on libertarian grounds, then do it and deal with the other problems when they arise. Is the eventual emergence of forms of affirmative action that libertarians object to an argument for not ending slavery or not extending blacks the right to vote because that got the ball rolling?

Second, there's this paragraph:

And, you skirt the issue of monogamy entirely: The classic argument is that monogamy makes for social stability (no unhappy mate-less males or females, as in polygamous societies). Another argument is that it is better to have two parents raise children; this is supported by social science research.

What's to skirt? Is the claim that gays and lesbians are less likely to be monogamous than straights? If so, let's hold that thought until the comparison is fair - when gays and lesbians have real legal marriage to be bound to. Comparing the monogamy of married straights to unmarried same-sex couples proves nothing, other than perhaps that marriage would increase the level of monogamy among same-sex couples. And of course it's better ceteris paribus to have two parents raise children. The social science research also strongly suggests that the parents need not be of the opposite sex. One argument for same-sex marriage is that it creates more two-parent couples to raise children. (This doesn't even address when ceteris isn't paribus - better a stable one-parent family than a constantly conflictual marriage.)

I think it's possible for libertarians to simultaneously argue that the state should get out of the marriage business and that, given that it's in the business, the state should extend marriage rights to same-sex couples. I might think the state should dramatically reduce the level of taxation, but also believe that at the given level, taxes should be administered non-discriminatorily, even if that means some folks' taxes are higher.

Monday, August 8, 2005 - 13:06
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At the risk of being a one-note Charlie, here's the single best thing I've read yet on the bias in academia question, by Tim Burke (hat tip to Ralph Luker at Cliopatria). Money quote number one:

On the other hand, collegiality is a powerful cultural force in many colleges and universities, and its stultifying or comforting effects (take your pick) often have nothing to do with politics in any sense. A conservative or libertarian who is a mensch about his or her views and research may well be admired, even beloved, by liberal or left colleagues, and fondly regarded as valuable because of their views. On the other hand, someone like Daniel Pipes who is running around picking broad-brush fights with everyone whom he perceives as a bad academic, usually based on a paper-thin reading of their syllabi or even just the titles of their research, is going to be loathed, but as much for his behavior as his political views. A liberal or leftist who plays Stalinist Truth Squad in the same way is going to be equally loathed and avoided.

Money quote number two:

12. Kieran Healy rightfully observes that conservatives talking about this issue are making an interesting exception to their general tendency among conservatives to assume that results in the market are probably based on some real distribution of qualifications rather than bias or discrimination. It might be fair to assert in response that academic hiring is a closed or non-market system, and this is precisely what is unfair about it. But if so, it requires that one demonstrate that there is a class of potential, qualified individuals who are being discriminated against at the time of hiring, or that these individuals are being discriminatorily weeded out at the time of initial acceptance for training. If not, then the argument that conservatives are being discriminated against in academic hiring practices is exactly comparable in its logics and evidence to the logic of most affirmative action programs and many other antidiscrimination initiatives, that there is a subtle systemic bias which is producing unequal results that prevents a “normal” sociological distribution of candidates in particular jobs. It behooves conservatives who want to claim this to either concretely explain why this argument only applies to conservatives in academia, or to repudiate the standard conservative argument against affirmative action and other public-policy programs designed to deal with subtle bias effects.

13. On the other hand, most of the people mocking or disagreeing with the claim that conservatives are treated poorly in academia seem to me to be equally at odds with many standard representations of bias effects that are widely accepted by liberals or leftists, namely, that bias is often subtle, discursive, and institutionally pervasive, and that “hostile environments” can exist where no single action or statement, or any concrete form of discrimination can be easily pointed to as a smoking gun. Most of those claiming a bias against conservatives in academia are pointing to exactly these kinds of hostile-environment incidents and moments, and seeing them as causing the same kinds of psychological and inhibitory harms that this type of discrimination is said to cause in other contexts. I accept that people edging away from you in an elevator is a type of bias-effect that is harmful—an often cited instance of the kinds of subtly pervasive discrimination that African-Americans may suffer from in mostly-white institutions. I’ve never experienced myself because I’m white, and had I not read of it in the personal, anecdotal accounts of many African-Americans, I truthfully would never have noticed it. Same here. I don’t understand why it is so hard to accept that self-identified conservative undergraduates, graduate students, and faculty report experiencing many similar forms of pervasive, subtle bias. What I'm seeing from many of those who dismiss these claims is a collective eye-rolling, a sort of "big deal, so your professor sneered at you, get over it". And yet few of those doing that eye-rolling would say the same to a student of color or a woman reporting similar experiences. The grounds on which many critics are doubting that such bias exists would have to, in all honesty, extend to all anecdotal, experiential or narrative claims of bias. The only way to salvage such claims would be if they could be profitably correlated with quantifiable evidence of discrimination—but in this case, we have some evidence to that effect. The only other way to salvage this point is to say, "It's wrong to be biased against people because of their race, gender or sexual orientation, but not because of their politics". A few seem willing to say just that: I can only say I think that's a big, fat mistake on a great many fronts.

All I can say is "I wish I'd written this."

Monday, August 8, 2005 - 13:06
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Even though I promised to stop addressing Jonathan's argument directly, I want to get one more entry in on the same-sex marriage issue. Some of you might have seen this piece by Jonah Goldberg over at NRO that offered a critique of Jonathan Rauch's Hayekian case for same-sex marriage (SSM). Thanks to some previous correspondence with Jonah over this issue, he had asked me for my thoughts on his piece. I reprint those below. They are in the form of an email to Jonah, with some minor editing since:

In any case, here's a few thoughts. I think you have indeed hit on a key question for Hayekians - how fast should that "correction" process of unjust laws take place given that institutions have to be rooted in actual human practices and that such institutions have, themselves, often emerged over many generations? How do we balance the claims of justice against the potential social discoordination that a change in an institution might provoke? (Note that this parallels "liberty vs order" debate that runs through so much of the libertarian/conservative divide.) All of these are very good questions, and the answers to them can probably not be found "a priori" and may well differ from case to case.

But that's not my big problem with your argument. I want to challenge a core premise, namely that same-sex marriage reflects a revolutionary change in the institution of marriage. Whether ones sees the change as revolutionary or evolutionary may well depend on whether one is focusing on the form of marriage or the functions. Like many conservatives, your argument is, at least implicitly, focused on the form in arguing that we are so fundamentally changing the institution that it's likely to cause major social confusion and discoordination (e.g., your traffic light analogy, which I will return to). What I would argue is that the functions of marriage and the family are what really matter, and that changing the form that marriage can take need not (and would not in the case of SSM) fundamentally alter what marriage is for and what it/the family does. (Rauch's chapter on "What is Marriage For?" is excellent in just this way).

Over human history, the forms and functions of the family have changed as other social institutions have changed - in our own time, often within a generation. In previous years we've gone from women as chattel to women as full partners (thanks to capitalism and the rule of law/contract, I would argue) and now to single parenthood. I'm not arguing that all form changes are function-neutral, but the question should be "how do they affect the function?" Too many conservatives start making arguments about how marriage/the family has "been" or "done" <insert family form or function here> "for centuries." It's simply not true in most cases. The idealized vision of the family implicit in much conservative rhetoric is a peculiarly modern, industrial revolution and later phenomenon. Marriage and the family have evolved in crucial ways in both form and function throughout human history, sometimes in small steps, sometimes large. (Imagine, for example, the momentousness of the notion that women were no longer men's property.)

Anyway, my point is that SSM is much more about a change in form than in function. Changes in form are much easier for people to adjust to than changes in function. For example, if we suddenly went all Plato and decided to collectivize child-raising, then your argument about going slow would make more sense (obviously, I'm not arguing that such a change would be good), because it was a fundamental change in what the institution does. SSM is about who can be married, not what being married means or what marriages and families do. Institutions are about functions. Yes, function and form can be related (i.e., different forms might function better or worse under one set of circumstances or another), and they have been with families, so it's an empirical question about whether or not SSM would really affect functioning. I should note that for Hayek, it was the function of institutions that mattered. The whole point of the Hayekian argument is that institutions do things that we sometimes can't fully comprehend.

And the form/function distinction is why the analogy to Loving v. Virginia is in play. I don't find the simliarities to be about "civil rights" per se, although that's important, but that both interracial and same-sex marriage are about the who not the what of marriage. They are changes in the form that marriages/families can take but not about their functions. Given that form changes are easier to digest, it would make sense in such cases that the law can be more ahead of public opinion. As SSM advocates note, Gallup polls two years before Loving showed 42% of Northern whites and 72% of Southern whites thinking interracial marriage should be outlawed. The comparable number from January 2004 on SSM is 55% thinking it should be illegal, with 38% thinking it should be put in the Constitution as illegal. Seems to me those numbers are in the same ballpark, and perhaps even suggesting more social acceptance of SSM than interracial marriage in the 60s. Combine my argument that this is not a revolutionary change, but part of an ongoing evolution in the form that marriage and family take, not in their function, with the fact that the public is no less and perhaps more accepting of this change than they were of interracial marriage in the 60s, and the argument for going slow disappears. (Either that or you're going to have to say Loving was premature, which is hard to argue given the lack of social confusion and upheaval it brought in its wake.)

This is also where the traffic light analogy breaks down. Traffic lights have evolved too. If you watch old films or newsreels (or, like me, The Three Stooges) you'll note that the earliest signals simply had two wood or metal signs saying "stop" and "go" that flipped down at the right time. And other early ones just had red and green. In both cases, there was no equivalent to yellow. Later on, the third color was added, specifically when the automobile became more common and faster. The form of the yellow was unnecessary if traffic was sufficiently low and low-risk. When the context in which traffic lights operated changed, the form needed to change so that the functions could be applied to the new context. I would argue that this is a reasonable analogy to where we find ourselves with marriage - a new context of social acceptance of homosexuality leading to a change in form that allows the functions to be applied to a new context.

(Just to show that even the red and green were likely not arbirtrary, my psychologist teaching partner Cathy Crosby-Currie noted to me that: "the colors red and green may have been chosen due to the strong ability of the human eye to detect red and green wavelengths which are also opponents of each other, i.e., neurons which are excited by red are inhibited by green and vice versa.")

Did this fundamentally alter the "institution" of the traffic light? I'd say no. Did it require some social adjustment? Sure we all had to understand what yellow meant and how long it would stay on etc.. I"m sure there were some problems when they were first used, but nothing major. The addition of "yellow" to the signalling function of traffic lights allowed more information to be available to users, which, if anything, enhanced its functioning as an institution by better aligning with how people wished to use it. To me, SSM is like adding yellow to the red/green system. It brings something in and widens (and perhaps improves, if you take the justice argument seriously) the institution without undermining its functioning. It simply applies the functions of marriage to a new context. It's evolutionary not revolutionary, thus it doesn't require generations.

Of course, many conservatives, especially of the religious sort, might not care about functions and just say "God/Nature said man and woman." But for a Hayekian, who sees institutions as evolving because they perform certain functions that enhanced the ability of a society to survive socially, function is the question at hand. I'm convinced by the social scientific evidence about homosexuality and same-sex couples parenting that SSM will do no damage to the social fabric, and might even improve it by creating more loving homes for children.

Even Hayek understood that sometimes the judge or the legislator can see, at the system level, contradictions, inconsistencies, or injustices that can be remedied in ways that don't completely reconstruct institutions and that do bring them more in line with the fundamental principles of the society and the underlying function of the institutions. That to me is what SSM is about. It is not a chaos-inducing change in the signals associated with a social institution, rather it is an evolutionary change in an institution that applies its functions to a different form.

Monday, August 8, 2005 - 13:06
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I want to weigh in with some thoughts about the whole National Guard documents/CBS forgery issue. This story has consumed me for the last two days. I'm far less interested in the whole question of what Bush and/or Kerry did or didn't do during the Vietnam Era than I am about what this particular incident has to say about liberty and power. I'm also assuming that everyone has some cursory knowledge of the whole issue. If not, the best places to go for summaries are Instapundit or Powerline. Let me also say that I am completely convinced that these documents, or at least 2 of them, are forgeries. If I'm wrong, this little essay's going to look pretty stupid, but I'm willing to take that chance. Let me also say that it doesn't matter to me where they came from and how they got to CBS. What I care about is how these memos got on the air and what the near-instant demolition of them by the blogs and "new media" means socially. And as I've argued before in this space, I have no love for the incumbent, so my point is not to destroy Kerry or support Bush. Finally, people will call this "blogosphere triumphalism" but so be it.

With that said, it seems to me that this incident is a triumph of liberty over power. For years, we've heard from both Right and Left that the "Big Media" are a problem. Each group thinks they are the handmaiden of the other group. What both appear to agree on is that they are near-all powerful entities who are growing unchecked like some electromagnetic cancer upon the land. The Left has long had the small alternative press, which tried to counter the power of the Big Guys, but with limited success, and it had academia. The Right, since the 80s anyway, has had the think-tank world (which I've always viewed as the alternative university for libertarians and conservatives who perceived themselves, perhaps wrongly, as being closed out of academic by what they saw as leftist power). However it had no real media of its own (Jim and Tammy Faye don't count) until the advent of the Internet. There's a reason the earliest and most well-known blogs lean conservative or libertarian: there was a latent demand for their services.

The net finally reduced the cost of publishing to near zero, at least on the margin, and radically democratized the knowledge production industry, especially investigative reporting. By eliminating both political (think broadcast licenses) barriers to entry and the huge start up costs of publishing, the Internet widened the sphere of liberty for those who wished to be producers of information. The result, as we've seen so clearly the last 48 hours, is that the strength of Big Media power has been radically reduced. Average Americans, with their knowledge of typewriters, military procedure, or fairly obscure terms like "kerning," were able to compete with, and effectively neutralize, one of the most powerful organizations on the planet. The Internet has demonstrated itself to be one of the most powerful (yes, powerful), power-checking institutions ever. By opening up the lines of communication to nearly everyone, it has forced us to rely on actual arguments, facts, history, and evidence precisely because the intensity of competition and the value of reputation is so high. The work that was done in demonstrating, at least to my satisfaction, the forging of those documents is a tribute to the power of truth that comes from liberty. There's no "trust me, I'm <Dan Rather, Peter Jennings, Walter Cronkite>", rather you're only as good as your arguments and evidence and your experts (and the persuasiveness of the latter can also be determined with a quick Google search).

None of this should be surprising to those of us raised on Hayek. After all, this is nothing more than the intellectual version of "Competition as a Discovery Procedure." Or better yet, it is Michael Polanyi's work on "The Republic of Science" transferred to current events. Even in the blogosphere, the commentary has talked about the "distributed intelligence" of the Net, or "open source journalism," or even the "hive mind" (a bit too Borg-ish for my taste, but it makes the point). The Hayekian lesson is that it is through the ability to enter the market and compete that knowledge gets created and made socially available to others. Just as in economic competition, where the process will tend to allocate resources better than alternative processes, so in the competition to produce news does the process tend to produce the best approximation to "truth." Markets are in that way examples of liberty defeating power. The very openness and competitiveness of markets makes any momentary hold on power tenuous, requiring that those who possess it continually act affirmatively (e.g. innovating, serving consumers well) to keep it. CBS and other Big Media simply have never had to face this sort of environment before and have become sloppy as a result.

I should add here one or two comments on how this all might have happened. I don't believe that CBS or others exhibit deliberate, conscious bias against conservatives. I don't believe (although it could be true) that Dan Rather said "I need to destroy Bush, so I'll take shortcuts to try to do so." Instead, as others have argued, the problem is more bias-induced laziness. Assuming CBS was duped and not complicit, I'm sure they saw these memos as fitting their priors about Bush and political issues more generally and simply didn't see any reason to investigate further because the memos, in some sense, just had to be true. All the head-scratching about why it took 12 hours for the blogosphere to see the obviously shoddy forging job while CBS missed it can be explained by the differences in behavior induced by both different political priors and the differening perceptions of the rules of the game held by bloggers and Big Media. Political priors will frame what sorts of things require "investigation" and what sorts do not. The competition generated by the advent of the Internet has widened the range of things deemed to be worthy of investigation (on all sides: think of the ways in which blogs have attempted to undermine the case for the War in Iraq). In addition, when one sees oneself in an environment of competition, as bloggers do, one cannot afford to be lazy and everyone has to start checking their premises. This is not, as this recent piece argued, an attempt to police people's politics. Rather it is competition doing what it does best: holding everyone accountable to the "constitutional rules" of the Republic of Science. And as good Hayekians know, when the rules are right and access is open, the truth will out.

Finally, I appeal to my friends on the Left to take the right lesson from this whole event. Again, this is a triumph of democracy, liberty, and the common person over some of the most powerful institutions in America. That aspect of this event, again assuming the memos are forged, should be cause for celebration on the Left. It's possible that this could further doom the Kerry campaign, but don't let that obscure the sunshine. To all who argue that monopolized unchecked corporate power is a problem, the outing of CBS, and the advent of the new media on the Internet more generally, should be a cause for celebration. More power to the people and all of that. The way in which competition takes advantage of distributed knowledge and mobilizes it through the rules and procedures of the competitive process is the key to toppling power, whether economic, political, or intellectual. It works in markets just as well as it works in the world of the new media. I'm sorry if you don't like the particulars, but if you call yourself a person of the Left, this is a moment you should have been waiting for. Orwell just got that whole technology and power thing ass-backwards. The democratization of knowledge production and the ability of one person with a computer to check the power of the major social institutions is here, and it is the technology of the telescreen that brought it to us.

Left, Right, Libertarian, or whatever, liberty has once again defeated power by redestributing it back to the people.

Monday, August 8, 2005 - 13:06
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My apologies for reposting a big hunk of this, but I added some material at the end and wanted it all in one place. It also made cross-posting easier.

I want to weigh in with some thoughts about the whole National Guard documents/CBS forgery issue. This story has consumed me for the last two days. I'm far less interested in the whole question of what Bush and/or Kerry did or didn't do during the Vietnam Era than I am about what this particular incident has to say about liberty and power. I'm also assuming that everyone has some cursory knowledge of the whole issue. If not, the best places to go for summaries are Instapundit or Powerline. Let me also say that I am completely convinced that these documents, or at least 2 of them, are forgeries. If I'm wrong, this little essay's going to look pretty stupid, but I'm willing to take that chance. Let me also say that it doesn't matter to me where they came from and how they got to CBS. What I care about is how these memos got on the air and what the near-instant demolition of them by the blogs and "new media" means socially. And as I've argued before in this space, I have no love for the incumbent, so my point is not to destroy Kerry or support Bush. Finally, people will call this "blogosphere triumphalism" but so be it.

With that said, it seems to me that this incident is a triumph of liberty over power. For years, we've heard from both Right and Left that the "Big Media" are a problem. Each group thinks they are the handmaiden of the other group. What both appear to agree on is that they are near-all powerful entities who are growing unchecked like some electromagnetic cancer upon the land. The Left has long had the small alternative press, which tried to counter the power of the Big Guys, but with limited success, and it had academia. The Right, since the 80s anyway, has had the think-tank world (which I've always viewed as the alternative university for libertarians and conservatives who perceived themselves, perhaps wrongly, as being closed out of academic by what they saw as leftist power). However it had no real media of its own (Jim and Tammy Faye don't count) until the advent of the Internet. There's a reason the earliest and most well-known blogs lean conservative or libertarian: there was a latent demand for their services.

The net finally reduced the cost of publishing to near zero, at least on the margin, and radically democratized the knowledge production industry, especially investigative reporting. By eliminating both political (think broadcast licenses) barriers to entry and the huge start up costs of publishing, the Internet widened the sphere of liberty for those who wished to be producers of information. The result, as we've seen so clearly the last 48 hours, is that the strength of Big Media power has been radically reduced. Average Americans, with their knowledge of typewriters, military procedure, or fairly obscure terms like "kerning," were able to compete with, and effectively neutralize, one of the most powerful organizations on the planet. The Internet has demonstrated itself to be one of the most powerful (yes, powerful), power-checking institutions ever. By opening up the lines of communication to nearly everyone, it has forced us to rely on actual arguments, facts, history, and evidence precisely because the intensity of competition and the value of reputation is so high. The work that was done in demonstrating, at least to my satisfaction, the forging of those documents is a tribute to the power of truth that comes from liberty. There's no "trust me, I'm <Dan Rather, Peter Jennings, Walter Cronkite>", rather you're only as good as your arguments and evidence and your experts (and the persuasiveness of the latter can also be determined with a quick Google search).

None of this should be surprising to those of us raised on Hayek. After all, this is nothing more than the intellectual version of "Competition as a Discovery Procedure." Or better yet, it is Michael Polanyi's work on "The Republic of Science" transferred to current events. Even in the blogosphere, the commentary has talked about the "distributed intelligence" of the Net, or "open source journalism," or even the "hive mind" (a bit too Borg-ish for my taste, but it makes the point). The Hayekian lesson is that it is through the ability to enter the market and compete that knowledge gets created and made socially available to others. Just as in economic competition, where the process will tend to allocate resources better than alternative processes, so in the competition to produce news does the process tend to produce the best approximation to "truth." Markets are in that way examples of liberty defeating power. The very openness and competitiveness of markets makes any momentary hold on power tenuous, requiring that those who possess it continually act affirmatively (e.g. innovating, serving consumers well) to keep it. CBS and other Big Media simply have never had to face this sort of environment before and have become sloppy as a result.

I should add here one or two comments on how this all might have happened. I don't believe that CBS or others exhibit deliberate, conscious bias against conservatives. I don't believe (although it could be true) that Dan Rather said "I need to destroy Bush, so I'll take shortcuts to try to do so." Instead, as others have argued, the problem is more bias-induced laziness. Assuming CBS was duped and not complicit, I'm sure they saw these memos as fitting their priors about Bush and political issues more generally and simply didn't see any reason to investigate further because the memos, in some sense, just had to be true. All the head-scratching about why it took 12 hours for the blogosphere to see the obviously shoddy forging job while CBS missed it can be explained by the differences in behavior induced by both different political priors and the differening perceptions of the rules of the game held by bloggers and Big Media. Political priors will frame what sorts of things require "investigation" and what sorts do not. The competition generated by the advent of the Internet has widened the range of things deemed to be worthy of investigation (on all sides: think of the ways in which blogs have attempted to undermine the case for the War in Iraq). In addition, when one sees oneself in an environment of competition, as bloggers do, one cannot afford to be lazy and everyone has to start checking their premises. This is not, as this recent piece argued, an attempt to police people's politics. Rather it is competition doing what it does best: holding everyone accountable to the "constitutional rules" of the Republic of Science. And as good Hayekians know, when the rules are right and access is open, the truth will out.

Finally, I appeal to my friends on the Left to take the right lesson from this whole event. Again, this is a triumph of democracy, liberty, and the common person over some of the most powerful institutions in America. That aspect of this event, again assuming the memos are forged, should be cause for celebration on the Left. It's possible that this could further doom the Kerry campaign, but don't let that obscure the sunshine. To all who argue that monopolized unchecked corporate power is a problem, the outing of CBS, and the advent of the new media on the Internet more generally, should be a cause for celebration. More power to the people and all of that. The way in which competition takes advantage of distributed knowledge and mobilizes it through the rules and procedures of the competitive process is the key to toppling power, whether economic, political, or intellectual. It works in markets just as well as it works in the world of the new media. I'm sorry if you don't like the particulars, but if you call yourself a person of the Left, this is a moment you should have been waiting for. Orwell just got that whole technology and power thing ass-backwards. The democratization of knowledge production and the ability of one person with a computer to check the power of the major social institutions is here, and it is the technology of the telescreen that brought it to us.

Left, Right, Libertarian, or whatever, liberty has once again defeated power by redestributing it back to the people.

Two additional thoughts that I wanted to add:

1. To respond to Jonathan Dresner's comments: Yes, the reach of the Big Media remains large, as the Malkin incident shows. But we are, I think, in a period of transition the final result of which might be something different. As for the Net's ability to propagate urban legends, etc., no argument there. But that just means that in the same breath that the technology has democratized the production of knowledge it has also democratized the evaluation of knowledge. In the day when news was only produced by a few sources, there wasn't as much need for the average person to engage in "source evaluation," especially when the sources were largely telling the same story due to a lack of competition. In the new media world, not only can everyone be a publisher, everyone has to make decisions about the validity of what they read. Yes, this means we'll get a lot more crap that gets passed on via the Internet, but I think they are outweighed by the benefits in terms of more good things getting through (although the net effect on the signal to noise ratio remains an open question) and in terms of it, one would hope, leading people to be more critical and skeptical of everything they hear.

As an academic who has spent many years teaching first-year undergraduates how to write research papers, and developed what I think is fairly effective pedagogy to do it, I'm keenly aware of the problem Jonathan points to. Where my students are weakest is where they need to be strongest - evaluating the trustworthiness and validity of the millions of sources they might use. I can think of no task more central to liberal education and a prepared citizenry than the ability to evaluate effectively sources of information. The Internet has made this task a lot harder and more important.

2. I want to expand on a Hayekian theme from the original post. Part of what the blogosphere does is to mobilize the information necessary to address the issues at hand by taking advantage of the disperse and specific knowledge of millions and millions of people. Look how quickly experts on typewriters, typesetting, computing and the like "miraculously" appeared out of nowhere to provide "testimony." How did this happen? Well someone reads a blog and they know someone who knows something about typewriters, who knows a guy who heard about a woman who has a collection of old Selectrics, etc.. In minutes or hours, the necessary knowledge is mobilized through these sorts of networks. This is one reason why the "blogosphere" is a wonderful metaphor. Like a sphere, as the ability to communicate information at low cost expands, it expands its "surface area" and comes into contact with more people who know more and different things. This expands the network of knowledge and increases its ability to react quickly when knowledge is "needed" at one point or another in the blogosphere.

Many years ago, in his very under-appreciated book National Economic Planning: What is Left?, the late Don Lavoie talked about the principle of mass communication among animals (termites specifically) and used that as an analogy for how markets mobilized knowledge without a central authority. Well the Internet is another example of the same phenomenon. Faced with hurricane damage, generators, lumber, and ice appear in Florida in quick succession (and would do so even without FEMA - I saw it up here during the icestorm of January 98) because prices provide the relevant signals and incentive to mobilize human networks. ("I know a guy who buys generators from some guy in Atlanta, let me see what he has.")

What we saw happen so quickly, and apparently so effectively, with the critique of the CBS memos is precisely this sort of Hayekian "use of knowledge in society." And as many of us Hayekians have been arguing for years, it's exactly this feature of markets which makes them such wonderful processes by which liberty can check power.

Cross-posted at Taking Hayek Seriously.

Monday, August 8, 2005 - 13:06
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